DealNet Briefing Preview

Updated Fall 2026 · Next update Winter 26/27

The market repriced. Deals changed shape. The premium moved to solutions.

−31.6%Public software multiple, Dec 2025 to Jul 2026
2.97xAverage private deal multiple in 2026, down from 4.54x in 2025
124%Vertical-market deals vs. all of 2025, reached by Fall 2026

A quarterly analyst read on Work Tech M&A from frontoffice to backoffice, built from DealNet, Charles Bedard’s proprietary Work Tech deal-tracking network.

ACT 1 · THE RESET
One bad month reset software prices: −31.6% in seven months

Public software EV/ARR multiple. February fell 25% in a single month, then the market found a new floor.

5.58
4.81
−25% in one month
3.62
3.2–3.7x
3.82
Dec '25
Jan '26
Feb '26
Mar–Jun
Jul '26

Source: SaaS Capital Index. Private disclosed-price deals in DealNet followed: 4.54x average in 2025, 2.97x so far in 2026.

ACT 2 · THE SHAPE
Deals didn’t stop. They changed shape.

Solution and vertical-market deals have already passed their full-year 2025 totals. Office of the CFO and payroll counts are tracking close to 2025.

20252026

Office of the CFO

90% of full-year 2025 reached by Fall 2026

44
38
52
32
72
60
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26
Q2 '26

Payroll

69% of full-year 2025 reached by Fall 2026

33
35
39
19
46
36
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26
Q2 '26

As-a-solution

117% of full-year 2025 reached by Fall 2026

32
36
49
30
102
62
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26
Q2 '26

Vertical-market

124% of full-year 2025 reached by Fall 2026

123
118
174
67
293
236
Q1 '25
Q2 '25
Q3 '25
Q4 '25
Q1 '26
Q2 '26

DealNet deal counts by quarter, like-for-like across periods. Q4 2025 collection is lighter than other quarters; Q3 2026 counts update with the next refresh.

ACT 3 · THE PREMIUM
The premium moved to intelligence, compliance and software

Median EV/revenue of 2026 Work Tech deals with a disclosed multiple. The volume is in services; the price is in software, intelligence and AI.

Software, intelligence and AIServices, functional categories and no AI
Talent mgmt intelligence
5.3x
Compliance / GRC
4.7x
Intelligence
3.4x
Software / platform
2.9x
Mentions AI
2.8x
Backoffice
2.2x
Payroll
2.1x
WFM
1.9x
HR tech
1.8x
No AI
1.7x
Services
1.4x
Consulting
1.4x

Source: DealNet, 2026 YTD. Deals with monetized AI revenue price near 5–14x revenue.

SO WHAT
What it means for your next move
FoundersAverage no longer gets paid. Own the workflow, prove retention above 120% NRR and monetize AI to move up the ladder before you sell.
SponsorsBuy the fragmented service, attach software and AI, and exit a re-rated solution. Discounted SaaS and services roll-ups are both in play.
Next updateWinter 26/27 adds full-year 2026 counts, Q3 and Q4 detail and the first complete year-over-year read.
QUARTER BY QUARTER
The detail behind the story

Jump to: Q3 2026 · Q2 2026 · Q1 2026 · FY 2025

Q3 2026 Fall 2026

Deal counts update with the next data refresh.

Investment trends

  • Public software held near its new floor: the SaaS Capital Index ticked back up to 3.82x EV/ARR in July.
  • Holdco buyers priced the reset: Bending Spoons bought Airtable at about 2.7x ARR, against an $11.7B 2021 valuation.
  • Fund raises kept dry powder flowing to the lower middle market: Serent Capital closed $1.3B.

M&A deals

  • Grant Thornton Advisors (New Mountain Capital) to acquire CBIZ, about $5.0B: services roll-up at scale.
  • Bending Spoons acquired Airtable ($1.29B) and Miro ($1.36B).
  • Thoma Bravo acquired Tanda ($561M), workforce management.
  • Paylocity acquired Aidora: leave management bought into the payroll stack.

Signals

472 DealNet signals logged in Q3 so far, led by executive moves (174), product launches (80), M&A (60) and awards (50).

Go deeper

Q2 2026 Summer 2026
60Office of the CFO
36Payroll
62As-a-solution
236Vertical-market

Investment trends

  • The public reset found a floor: the SaaS Capital Index traded in a 3.2–3.7x band through the spring, and the reset cascaded into smaller PE deals by summer.
  • Capital concentrated in AI: generative AI funding rose 146% year over year to $136B, and mega-rounds took a growing share.
  • H1 2026 global deal value reached about $1.6T, up 28%, in a barbell market of megadeals plus small tuck-ins.

M&A deals

  • KKR acquired Crowe (about $3.0B): accounting and advisory services roll-up.
  • Salesforce acquired Fin (formerly Intercom) for about $3.6B.
  • Nuvei acquired Payoneer (about $2.7B).
  • Stack buyers moved on payroll: Gusto–Mosey, Mercury–Central, UnitedHealth–Alegeus, LumberFi–Pivla.

Signals

642 DealNet signals logged: executive moves (302), M&A (152), product launches (74) and investment (28). Achieve Partners raised a $450M fund.

Go deeper

Q1 2026 Winter 2026
72Office of the CFO
46Payroll
102As-a-solution
293Vertical-market

Investment trends

  • February broke the public market: the SaaS Capital Index fell to 3.62x EV/ARR, down 25% in a single month.
  • Secondaries became the release valve, with a $225B secondary market giving late-stage companies price discovery without an IPO.
  • Debt funded the platform buyers: DailyPay raised $195M in debt, and Sixth Street closed a $4.4B fund.

M&A deals

  • Thoma Bravo closed its $12.3B take-private of Dayforce.
  • Hg acquired OneStream (about $6.0B), FP&A workflow software.
  • TA Associates made a majority growth investment in OneSource Virtual (Workday BPaaS).
  • Payoneer acquired Boundless: fintech buys EOR.

Signals

599 DealNet signals logged: executive moves (296), M&A (144), product launches (63) and investment (31).

Go deeper

2025 Full year 2025
168Office of the CFO
127Payroll
148As-a-solution
484Vertical-market

Investment trends

  • Public software closed 2025 at 5.58x EV/ARR on the SaaS Capital Index, and private disclosed-price deals in DealNet averaged 4.54x.
  • Roughly two years of relative stability after the 2022 correction ended as the year closed.

M&A deals

  • Paychex acquired Paycor ($4.2B).
  • Thoma Bravo agreed to take Dayforce private ($12.3B).
  • ServiceNow acquired Moveworks ($2.85B), and Xero acquired Melio (about $2.5B).
  • Capgemini acquired WNS (about $3.5B), and EQT acquired NEOGOV (about $3.1B).
  • Qualtrics acquired Press Ganey Forsta (about $6.75B).

Go deeper

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